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Unusual relationship between Treasury yields reflects investors’ bets on easing inflation and future rate cuts
In 2021, officials thought that high inflation would be temporary. But a year later, it was still near a four-decade high. WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath explains three factors that have kept inflation up for longer than expected. Illustration: Jacob Reynolds
Yields on longer-term U.S. Treasurys have fallen further below those on short-term bonds than at any time in decades, a sign that investors think the Federal Reserve is close to winning its inflation battle regardless of the cost to economic activity.
A scenario in which short-term yields exceed long-term yields is known on Wall Street as an inverted yield curve and is often seen as a red flag that a recession is looming.
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